It’s Combine season once again in 2026. Prospective NFL players are strutting their stuff on the field, while fans anxiously look ahead to the 2026 NFL Draft in April and what it could mean for their teams in the 2025–2026 season. Free agency chatter is in full swing, the rumor mill is spinning, and with Super Bowl LX freshly in the books, the focus has already shifted to which teams are best positioned for a run — and which might be setting their fans up for heartbreak all over again.
Who is the most desperate to go all the way to the Super Bowl, and who is most likely to break their fans’ hearts (again)? For some, this can make or break a betting strategy when placing a NFL wager via one of the best NJ sportsbook apps, such as Bet365.
NJ.Bet, an online sports betting guide for New Jersey, surveyed fans across the U.S. about NFL teams: who wants to win, what obstacles are in the way, and whether there’s some favoritism going on. We also looked at a variety of team stats and created a “heartbreak calculator” to learn which teams are most likely to break hearts in the upcoming 2025–2026 season.
NFL Teams Most Likely to Break Fan Hearts
Heartbreak is never simple. Our calculator originally measured the likelihood of fan disappointment ahead of the 2023–2024 season, weighing year-over-year record improvement, injury rates, team age, Pro Bowl appearances, and Super Bowl wins over the past decade. The results crowned the Arizona Cardinals as the team most likely to break hearts, with a perfect heartbreak score of 100. The Saints, Texans, Colts, and Lions rounded out the top five.
Fast-forward to 2026, and much of that picture still resonates. The Cardinals continue to struggle with roster depth and fan confidence, while the Saints and Texans remain in rebuild mode. Even the Colts, once hopeful, have seen momentum cut short by injuries. The Lions are the one team in this group showing a genuine turnaround — but as their long-suffering fans know, heartbreak can linger even through progress.
At the other end of the heartbreak calculator are the teams most likely to keep fans smiling. Back in the 2023–2024 season, the Kansas City Chiefs topped the list, buoyed by their Super Bowl win and a roster built to contend year after year.
They weren’t alone. The Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, and Dallas Cowboys also ranked among the least likely to disappoint. Fan confidence was especially high in Kansas City and Philadelphia, who had just met in Super Bowl LVII. Strong health, improving win rates (with the exception of New England), and recent championship pedigree all fed into the optimism.
Now in 2026, much of that outlook still holds. The Chiefs remain perennial contenders, the Eagles are still stacked with talent, and both franchises continue to inspire confidence rather than dread. The Cowboys and Seahawks hover in the mix as well, though expectations often outweigh results. Even the Patriots, despite a downturn, still benefit from a culture of past success. All told, these teams have historically given their fans more reasons to believe than to brace for heartbreak.
NFL Teams who want a Super Bowl Victory the Most
Breaking hearts or not, every NFL team dreams of a Super Bowl — it’s the ultimate prize at the end of each season. But some fan bases feel the hunger more than others. Back in 2023, the Philadelphia Eagles were seen as the thirstiest franchise, followed closely by the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, and Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles had just fallen short in the Super Bowl, which only added fuel to the fire.
Fan sentiment at the time revealed a striking gap: while nearly seven in 10 believed their team would make the playoffs, almost three in four doubted they’d actually reach the Super Bowl. For many, fantasy football was the only way to taste victory at the highest level.
Nearly half of NFL fans — 48% — reported having their hearts broken during the 2022–2023 season. Fast-forward to today, and the question lingers: will the 2025–2026 season finally deliver joy for those long-suffering fan bases, or is another round of heartbreak waiting in the wings?
What Fans Think Stands in the Way of Winning the Super Bowl
NFL fans are in it for life- the average time spent being a fan is over two decades–23 years to be exact! Sadly, heartbreak also can be a lifelong commitment: 36% of NFL fans have never seen their NFL team win the Super Bowl in their lifetime.
What stands in the way? Top obstacles to victory include bad players, injuries, the coaching staff, poor offense, and just plain bad luck- over one in five blame luck as an obstacle to victory!
Another potential obstacle is favoritism by officials: over half of NFL fans believe that officials play favorites. The most favored teams by the referees? The Kansas City Chiefs top the list, followed by the New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
NFL fans think it goes beyond just favoritism for a certain team, over one in six fans believe that the league itself is rigged. However, some fans buy into this theory more than others, for example, 42% of Atlanta Falcons fans believe the NFL is rigged, followed by 40% of New York Jets fans, 36% of Jacksonville Jaguar fans, 36% of Las Vegas Raiders fans, and 33% of Arizona Cardinals fans.
Whether or not there’s a secret cabal of scriptwriters determining the season, or if the game is as pure as the scent of a tailgate on game day, there is no denying that fans can’t wait for the 2023 NFL season. How will the draft affect a team’s prospects? Will some rookies save teams from heartbreak? We can only stay tuned to find out!
Methodology
For the fan survey, we surveyed 1,006 NFL fans nationwide on their thoughts about the upcoming season. Among respondents, every NFL team fandom was represented. 50% were men, 49% women, and 1% were non-binary. Ages ranged from 18-85 with an average age of 41.
To create the heartbreak calculator, we analyzed win increases year over year from the last two seasons, fan confidence (as taken by survey), Super Bowls won in the last 10 years, players in the Pro Bowl, injury rates, and average team age to calculate the likelihood a team will be heartbroken next year. Data was gathered from NFL.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, and each NFL team’s website.
Fair Use
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