Forget thinking you know who will win the game or who will cover the spread. The wagering menus in the present betting landscape are filled with options from top to bottom. Many of these options are called “Prop” bets. If one of your favorite wide receivers in the NFL has scored the first touchdown in the last 3 games, maybe you place a wager on them to score the first touchdown of the game. For the Superbowl, if you want to just gamble in its purest form, you can place a prop bet on the coin toss! Prop betting can be fun, recreational gambling. Prop betting can also be researched thoroughly; with some skill and homework done to help you cash your prop bet ticket!
Lets start from the beginning…
What is a Prop Bet?
The Action Network defines as: “A prop bet in sports betting — short for proposition bet — is a wager that is not directly tied to the final score or final outcome.”
Traditionally, prop bets have been known as “sucker” types of bets. Props are options that the bookies and the sportsbooks welcome the consumers to make. But now, its no longer necessarily the case when it comes to prop bets.
Can Prop Bets be profitable?
When we pose this question, immediately we have to eliminate the “recreational” proposition bets that are being offered on the wagering menu. Examples of this are coin toss result, color of Gatorade poured on the coach at the end of the Super Bowl, how long the national anthem will be, etc.
But the answer to this question is a Yes, with the right research and homework done, there are plenty of opportunities in the prop betting market out there. Lets start with NFL Prop betting…
NFL Prop Betting
A popular prop bet offering for Football “Jalen Hurts Over or Under 1.5 Touchdowns Thrown”
Oddsmakers have determined that the Eagles quarterback is expected to throw between 1-2 touchdowns based on statistical history, trends, quality of opponent, etc.
Now, this type of a prop bet will have the odds higher on one side of the total, for example it may (-160) for the over 1.5 and the Under 1.5 may be priced at +105.
Where the opportunity lies is a market such as “Touchdown Scorer” where the juice can be more favorable of a Return on Investment and the books are not keying in on each and every offering they have as far as researching to accurately price these types of prop bets. So the second or third receiver on your favorite you may have done the homework, know their history against a certain team, and feel confident they will have an opportunity to score a touchdown in that game, or an opportunity to go over there Total Receiving Yards the sportsbook has set ( Example: Tyreek Hill Total Receiving Yards 74.5).
NBA Prop Bets
Lebron James Total Assists set at 8.5. Just like I described with the Jalen Hurts Total Touchdowns, the books and oddsmakers have done their homework based on historical stats/data, trends, opponent, and James average that year etc. While there is certainly an opportunity here, for the NBA, I look to the secondary players on a team. The role players that are not the stars of the league or that particular team. An example: PJ Tucker for the Sixers to get over 0.5 Three pointer made on a given night.
The Over may be priced at +100 because the data the books have researched shows he averages less than 1 3 pointer made a game. But that night, there may be a couple of starters out, and the last 5 games Tucker has played against that opponent, he has made at least one three pointer or more. The sportsbooks often times will not adjust the price given a change such as these, so you are able to take advantage given what you know.
In conclusion, Prop Bets are absolutely exploitable: If you do your homework, have some patience and discipline, you can have success and return a profit in the prop market. The NJ sportsbooks such as betMGM and bet365 NJ have lower limits for most of these prop bets, because they simply do not put as much of a focus/time on setting all of the props they offer. There is your opportunity.
Remember, the biggest advantage you have over a sportsbook is that you don’t need to take every bet. You don’t need to set every line, every prop total, and every prop price. Best of luck on all of your bets!