What are the best plays to win NBA MVP this season? Odds & prediction (2024)

It was a regular season to remember for Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid.

Embiid was named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player after a season where he compiled averages of 33.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.7 blocks, in 34.6 minutes in 66 games.  

Embiid dethroned Nuggets star Nikola Jokić, who won back-to-back MVP’s, but the Denver Nuggets center won his first-ever National Basketball Association title. 

So where do the two centers sit in the futures betting market entering the 2023-24 NBA season?

NBA MVP 2023-2024 Betting Odds

Here are the future betting odds for NBA MVP as training camps get set to open from some of the prominent sportsbooks in NJ.  

As you can see, right now, Jokic (+450) leads the futures entering this season, with Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic (+500), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+550) of the Milwaukee Bucks, and last year’s winner Joel Embiid (+650) sitting in the fourth spot. 

There are some interesting names to consider like Boston’s Jayson Tatum (+900), 2013-14 MVP Kevin Durant (+1300), who is now in Phoneix, and his teammate Devin Booker (+1800). Two-time MVP Stephen Curry (+1400) of the Golden State Warriors, four-time winner LeBron James (+1900), who is entering his 21st NBA season and an interesting young player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+2000) from Oklahoma City.

There are some really interesting odds to examine, with the emergence of other superstars like Tatum, Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Durant playing a full season with Booker in Phoneix might make this the most exciting year for the MVP race of all time.

The above list is just some of the top players that should be in your thoughts for the regular season MVP in 23-24, I will add a couple of long shots that I like that could get you a greater return on investment (ROI).

But remember, only one of these players will eventually win the trophy.

Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets, +450

He didn’t pick up his third straight MVP, but he was able to win an NBA title and a 2022-23 NBA Finals MVP Award. Only three players in NBA history won the MVP three years in a row, and while Jokić wasn’t able to accomplish that, he could very well pick up his third in four seasons this year, and while he is the favorite there is enough value to play him this season. 

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks, +500

he is a walking triple-double, and will now have a full offseason and training camp with Kyrie Irving, which should help them play better together. Coming off a year where he scored 32.4 points, grabbed 8.6 rebounds, and dished out eight assists, he is always a threat, but not my pick. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks, +550

The two-time MVP will be leading the Bucks with a new partner this season after the Bucks added Damian Lillard in a trade right before training camp opened. They still have Khris Middleton, but having Lillard around could impact Antetokounmpo’s numbers, so he is not my play. 

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, +650

Can he win it in back-to-back seasons? Unless he helps lead the Sixers to the top of the Eastern Conference and tops his 2022-23 season, I think he is probably going to come up short this season.

Kevin Durant, Phoneix Suns, +130

 If Durant is healthy for the full season, he will be in the discussion. In 47 games last season, Durant racked up 29.1 points per game, 6.7 rebounds and five assists.  While in Phoneix he connected on 53.7% from three-point range and could be in for a huge season with the Suns. 

LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers, +1900

I thought he should have had better odds, and if the team improves in 23-24, which is a good possibility and James can stay healthy all season, he could win his fifth MVP title 

Here are some long shots

Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves, + 3500: I love this play and value, especially if Edwards can get Minnesota higher up the Western Conference standings. Edwards averaged career-highs in points (24.6), rebounds (5.8), assists (4.4), steals (1.6) blocks (0.7) last season, and if he takes another step forward in Year 4 he could end up in the NBA conversation. 

Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers: +3500: Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank said that Leonard is “fully healthy” ahead of the start of training camp. If Leonard is healthy, this would be a good value play at +3500.

De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings, +4000: Fox helped lead the Kings to the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, and if he can follow that up with an even bigger season, he brings tremendous value at +4000. He averaged 25 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 6.1 assists, if he can add some better 3-point shooting this season, he would be a great play.

Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks, +8000: Brunson helped bring excitement back to Madison Square Garden last season, scoring 24 points and 6.2 assists per game and hitting 41.6% of his three-pointers last season.   He would be a real long shot, but if the Knicks move up the standings and Brunson adds to those numbers, he would bring amazing value at +8000.

NBA MVP Betting Prediction 2024

After winning his first NBA title, I’m taking Jokic at +450 to win his third title in three seasons.

I will also put a long-shot play on Jayson Tatum at +900. With the Celtics at +500 to win the NBA Title, behind only the Bucks (+350) in the east, if Tatum can have the Celtics in play for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, that could mean he did it by having an MVP season. 

Finally, I like Durant at +1300.  If he can help the Suns move back up the standings while putting up Kevin Durant type of numbers, he gives you tremendous value at +1300.