If you’ve even maintained a passing interest in gambling, whether it be online sports betting, or wagering through an online casino, you’ve no doubt heard about betting systems.
After all, they are touted everywhere. This guy has a foolproof system that will give you winners 77% of the time. Another’s sure-fire method to betting success will be filling your online casino account with the casino’s cash.
Here’s the thing, though and it’s something to really step back and consider amidst the noise emanating from all of these so-called betting experts.
If their system truly was that foolproof, if it really was beating the casinos like a drum, why would they want to share it with everyone else? Come to think of it, if their system really was working as well as they claim it does, then why are they working at all?
Shouldn’t they be swimming in money, floating about on their yacht in St. Tropez or Monte Carlo, sipping champagne and sampling the latest caviar?
Instead, there they are, screaming on social media about their can’t-lose system that is going to make you rich.
Like all hucksters, they’re counting on the gullibility of the people and seeking to fool those looking to make a big score without putting in the time and effort.
The Gambler’s Fallacy
What these touts are truly counting on is the belief among the masses that there is some sort of pattern to random events. In the betting world, this is often referred to as the gambler’s fallacy.
There’s a popular theory among gamblers that each play within a game of chance is not independent of all of the other plays. That belief is patently false. Just because an event is overdue, that doesn’t mean it is more likely to occur in the immediate future. A prime example of this is the theory that a slot machine that hasn’t hit for a big win in some time is primed and ready to deliver that massive jackpot.
That would suggest there is a pattern in place when it comes to slot machines, when in fact they are all operated by random number generators.
It’s no different with table games. Just because the last three spins of the roulette wheel saw the ball landing on a red number, that doesn’t make it more likely that the next ball will be landing in the black. It could happen, but it won’t happen because of any pattern. Games of chance are games of chance because each outcome is independent of all others and every outcome in that game is completely random.
The touts pitching their betting systems are counting on people being invested in their belief in the gambler’s fallacy. Because once you accept that uncontrollable factors can’t be controlled, you’re also admitting that no betting system is going to improve your chances of success at the online casino.
All casino games operate with a house edge. And there’s no betting system out there capable of eliminating that edge. It’s mathematically impossible over the long run for any system to alter expected results from a game that delivers random outcomes.
Busting the Betting Systems Myth
Looking at some of the more popular betting systems out there, it doesn’t take much effort to decipher why they aren’t going to work to make you rich.
Take the Martingale system. Its theory, that you double down on bets following losses, ignores one of the patented policies of smart, disciplined gambling and that is you never chase your losses. Under the Martingale system if you bet $1 on red at the roulette table and lost, you’d come right back and wager $2 on red. If you lose again, next you bet $4 on red. But suppose black comes up yet again. Now you bet $8 on red and this time, you win. Great, your system worked. And your profit for this ingenious piece of betting strategy is $1, because you lost $7 from your first three bets.
This is just one example, but whatever betting system you put through this experimental test, the outcome will almost always be equal to whatever the house edge is for that particular casino game.
If you still don’t believe it and want to try to implement one of these systems, go ahead and find out the hard way. But whatever you do, don’t pay some tout for a foolproof plan to beat the casino. They say that there’s a sucker born every minute and if you buy somebody else’s gambling system, you’ll be that sucker.
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