In football parlance, the move Polymarket is making into the US prediction market would be referred to as an end-around.
The $112M Deal That Could Make Polymarket the Biggest Name in U.S. Prediction Markets
At face value, Monday’s $112 million purchase of QCX Exchange (QCEX) by the world’s largest prediction market might not seem like a big deal. It might just be the biggest of deals for Polymarket.
QCEX is a derivatives exchange (QCX, LLC) and clearinghouse. The federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission also licenses it. By acquiring this company, Polymarket is now able to gain legal access to the massive US prediction market quickly. And that’s huge.
The company had been under investigation by the US Department of Justice. It was alleged that Polymarket had illegally accepted American players while the company wasn’t a licensed operator in the US prediction betting market. Polymarket has since been cleared of all charges.
What Is Polymarket?
Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, NY. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where investors can make trades that are based on a variety of future events.
As a crypto-only site, another advantage that Polymarket gains from its acquisition of QCEX is that the latter company does business transactions in US dollars.
How Does Polymarket Work?
The first step is to create a Polymarket betting account. No promo codes are required. Accounts are funded with crypto, through a credit or debit card, or via a bank transfer.
Next, start playing by picking a Polymarket. You’ll be buying yes or no shares on a specific outcome. Suppose it was a market on whether the New York Yankees will win the 2025 World Series. You either back yes they will or no they won’t. The value of the trades shifts as other traders make their plays.
There is no limit to how much value you can place in terms of purchased shares on a single trade. You can opt to sell your ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ shares at any time as the market fluctuates. Alternatively, you can wait until the market ends to redeem winning shares at a rate of $1 each.
What Can You Bet On at Polymarket?
Polymarket’s self-proclaimed status as the world’s leading prediction market isn’t some slick marketing claim. It’s a fact. Upon checking the Polymarket site, we counted thousands of potential trades to be made.
If politics is your thing, you could enter into prediction markets for the 2028 US Presidential election, the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee, the New York City mayoral election, or the Bolivian Presidential election. European parliamentary elections are also in play. Perhaps you want to predict who will be the next to depart from the Trump administration.
Suppose world events are your jam. Well, you can try predicting the next winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, or whether it will be determined that Jeffrey Epstein’s death was the result of foul play. The future of Jerome Powell as chairman of the Fed is a popular prediction market. There are several variables in play here. Will there be a US-Iran nuclear deal, or an Israel-Hamas ceasefire?
For people who are into pop culture, maybe you want to predict whether Hailey Bieber will become pregnant in 2025, or if infamous Coldplay cam subject Andrew Byron will be out as CEO of Astronomer before the end of next week.
Of course, it wouldn’t be a true prediction market site without a plethora of sports-related trades. You can go for quick results by picking winners of MLB and WNBA games, or the next Formula 1 race or ATP tennis tournament. Trades are also offered on season-ending awards like soccer’s Ballon d’Or and the F1 constructors’ championship. You can also select a Super Bowl winner if you so desire.
Here are a few real markets active or expected for 2025–2026:
Polymarket lets you bet on all kinds of future events — from politics and sports to crypto and celebrity news. Think of it as a giant, real-time guessing game with money on the line. And the topics? They’re often wilder than your group chat.
- “Will Bitcoin hit $150,000 by December 31, 2025?” — You can buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ shares depending on how bullish you are on crypto.
- “Will Taylor Swift announce a pregnancy in 2025?” — Yes, even celebrity baby rumors make it onto the market.
- “Who will win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election?” — There are early contracts for Biden, Trump, Newsom, and even wildcard candidates.
- “Will Apple release an AI iPhone feature before March 2026?” — Tech predictions are huge, especially around launch dates and keynote surprises.
- “Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series?” — Classic sports bets with fluctuating odds based on team performance and injuries.
- “Will the Ethereum price double by June 2026?” — Crypto markets are non-stop and react to news faster than traditional exchanges.
- “Will a major U.S. city issue a water crisis alert in summer 2025?” — Real-world risk markets are gaining traction, especially around weather and environment.
Politics & Elections Betting
Expect nonstop action around the 2028 U.S. presidential race. You can back names like JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, AOC, or Pete Buttigieg — or bet against them. There are also markets for mayoral races (like NYC), cabinet appointments, or even if Trump will fire Jerome Powell.
Other political trades include:
- “Will Trump release Epstein files before August?”
- “Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress?”
- “Which country will sign a tariff deal with the U.S. before August?”
There are quirky trade options, such as the price of Bitcoin on a specific day, or choosing the highest-grossing movie at the box office for the year.
If you’re into Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana, Polymarket lets you back specific price targets for certain dates — like whether Bitcoin will pass $120k on July 23 or where Ethereum lands by the end of 2025. There are also bets on GPT-5’s release date and how many times Elon Musk will tweet in a week.
Yes, you can trade on movies and celebs too. Upcoming markets include:
- “Will Zootopia 2 be the highest-grossing movie of 2025?”
- “Will Hailey Bieber be pregnant in 2025?”
- “Which actor will win the next Oscar?”
It’s not just about who wins. You’ll find markets for game-day picks, season-long titles, and player awards.
Examples:
- “Super Bowl Champion 2026” (Philadelphia, Buffalo, Baltimore are frontrunners)
- “F1 Drivers Champion” and “Ballon d’Or Winner 2025”
- “Will the Yankees win the 2025 World Series?”
Some predictions are just plain fascinating:
- “Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire by August?”
- “Will Jerome Powell leave the Fed?”
- “Will Xi Jinping be out before October?”
The fun part? You don’t have to wait until the event is over. You can buy and sell your shares anytime as market sentiment shifts. And yeah, some people are in it for serious money — others just want bragging rights.
US Legal States
Polymarket, through its acquisition of QCX Exchange, has official CFTC approval to operate anywhere in the United States. QCEX was granted a CFTC licence on July 9, just 12 days before the company was purchased by Polymarket.
Customer Support
You’ll find that there are a number of methods to contact Polymarket customer support. The simplest way when you’re on the Polymarket site is to navigate down to the bottom right-hand corner of the page. There, you’ll see a blue icon. Click on that icon to open Polymarket live chat support.
Another option is to join the Polymarket Discord server. You can also navigate to the support sidebar and click #open-a-ticket. This will open a private conversation with a Polymarket team member.
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